The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Written by: 0xWeilan

As the tide turns, Trump 2.0 is about to make its official debut.

This week, BTC opened at $ 94,507.24 and closed at $ 101,211.13 , up 7.09% for the week and with an amplitude of 18.29% . Before the arrival of the U.S. Presidential Registration Day, the bulls and bears had a fierce confrontation.

Previously, the Fed continued to be hawkish, and the US stock market retreated sharply, giving up all the " Trump deal " . However, the CPI data released by the United States this week reversed the two-month consecutive increase and fell slightly. As a result, both the US stock market and BTC saw a sharp rise, and BTC even stood back above the $ 100,000 level.

On the 18th , Trump unexpectedly released the Trump MEME token, which was highly sought after in the Crypto community. Within two days, the number of holders exceeded 800,000 , and the circulating market value exceeded 10 billion, becoming the second largest MEME token after DOGE . The frenzy of speculation has made people focus on the huge changes that " Trump 2.0 " may cause in the crypto market.

Macro-financial and economic data

On January 15 , the United States released inflation data: the U.S. seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in December was 2.9% (in line with expectations), and the monthly CPI rate was 0.4% (higher than expectations). This data rekindled the market's expectations of interest rate cuts, which had just been hit hard.

In the following days, Fed officials made intensive dovish statements. Fed Governor Waller said: "The inflation data is very good. If we continue to get such data, it is reasonable to believe that a rate cut may occur in the first half of the year, and even the possibility of a rate cut in March cannot be ruled out . "

The expectation of interest rate cuts has been rekindled, at least not to the extent that there will be no interest rate cuts or only two cuts in 2025 - this expectation previously priced in the market has temporarily failed before the release of more " worsening " data. This is the fundamental reason for the recent sharp fluctuations in the U.S. stock and crypto markets.

The Nasdaq and Dow Jones rebounded 2.45% and 3.69% respectively , temporarily reversing the downward trend after the medium-term macro expectations turned bad.

The US dollar index recovered to 109.3792 after breaking through 110 , allowing global stock markets to take a breather and rebound. Short-term government bonds rose slightly, while long-term government bonds fell sharply.

Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF

Thanks to the downward revision of US inflation data, after several weeks of slowing inflows, capital inflows into stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF channels saw a surge this week, with a total inflow of US$ 5.002 billion.

Among them, the stablecoin channel inflow was 2.926 billion US dollars, the BTC Spot ETF channel inflow was 1.864 billion US dollars, and the ETH Spot ETF inflow was 212 million US dollars. From the trend point of view, after the release of the US inflation data on the 15th , all channels turned from outflow to inflow and continued to grow.

The issuance of stablecoins hit a new record high of $ 197.824 billion, and the stock of centralized exchanges reached $ 46.552 billion, indicating that new funds were very active in entering the market, while the on-site lending rate remained at a low level of less than 10% , indicating that market funds were relatively abundant.

Selling pressure and selling

As the price returned to $ 100,000 , the scale of new selling this week increased to $ 194,666 , of which long-hand selling further shrank to only 9,839 coins, indicating that long-term funds have strong confidence in the future market, which is a clear bullish signal.

The exchange's inventory is still in a state of outflow, with 5,672 coins outflowing throughout the week, a significant decrease from the outflow of 27,357 coins last week.

If it breaks through $ 100,000 , it will still be like higher sentiment or purchasing power.

Cycle Indicators 

According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics  indicator is 0.875  , and the market is in an upward period.

END

EMC Labs was founded by crypto asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, takes industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.

For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund